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Thursday, November 30, 2017
On Wednesday, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile with sufficient range to target anywhere within the continental United States. Experts calculated that the missile, the Hwasong-15, could indeed reach the US capital, Washington, D.C.
Launched shortly before 3 AM on Wednesday from South Pyongan Province, the missile reached an altitude of 2,800 miles (4,475 km)—ten times the altitude of the International Space Station—and flew for 54 minutes, higher and longer than any previous North Korean missile. It fell into the ocean approximately 620 miles (950 km) from the point of launch, approximately 130 miles (210 km) offshore of Japan’s Aomori Prefecture. News presenter Ri Chun-hee of the North Korean KCNA stated: “With this system, we can load the heaviest warhead and strike anywhere in the mainland United States.” According to a KCNA report, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that the country has now “finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force”.
North Korea’s previous missile test was two months ago, on September 15, an intermediate-range missile whose trajectory passed over the Japanese island of Hokkaido. On July 28 it tested a previous ICBM, the Hwasong-14. Ri described the Hwasong-15 as “far more technologically advanced”. Hwasong is Korean for “Mars”.
The missile appears to have been fired on a “lofted trajectory”, maximizing height rather than range; according to David Wright, a director of the Union of Concerned Scientists global security program, on a standard trajectory its range would be over 8,100 miles (13,000 km), more than sufficient to target Washington. The Hwasong-14 would have had a range of 6,500 miles on a standard trajectory. The Hwasong-15 appears to be fired from a platform, rather than a mobile launcher, presumably because it is considerably larger than the Hwasong-14; according to Michael Duitsman of the Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, very few countries are capable of building such large missiles. Wright told Reuters that it appeared to be able to carry twice as much propellant as the Hwasong-14; this and the increased size and blunter shape of its nose cone make the North Korean claim that the Hwasong-5 could carry “super-large heavy” nuclear warheads plausible.
US Secretary of Defense James Mattis said that North Korea intended to develop weapons “that can threaten everywhere in the world”. US President Donald Trump said of the situation, “We will take care of it”. In addition to the US, the launch was condemned by the Secretary General of the United Nations, the governments of South Korea and Japan, both of which held emergency meetings of their national security councils, and European leaders. China, a crucial ally of North Korea, also expressed “grave concern and opposition”, in the words of Geng Shuan, a Foreign Ministry spokesman.
A North Korean official told CNN: “Before we can engage in diplomacy with the Trump administration, we want to send a clear message that the DPRK has a reliable defensive and offensive capability to counter any aggression from the United States”, and that demonstrating this would involve first, testing a “long-range ICBM” with the range to target the US, and second, above-ground detonation of a nuclear bomb.